Report from CSPPLAZA:
According to SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2016 released jointly by the European Solar Thermal Electricity Association (ESTELA), Greenpeace International and SolarPACES, three different scenarios are outlined for the future growth of solar thermal electricity around the world, reference scenario, moderate scenario, advanced scenario. Under the Advanced scenario, CSP capacity would be over 350 GW and solar power would cover 6 % of global electricity demand by 2030. Then by 2020, CSP capacity would be over 42 GW.
Under the Reference scenario based on current policies scenario, it is predicted that by 2030 CSP capacity would be 21GW and 11 GW by 2020. Under Moderate scenario, it is predicted that CSP capacity would be 22 GW by 2020, 800GW by 2050, covering 5% of global electricity demand.
According to the statistics by CSPPLAZA, global CSP installed capacity by the end of 2015 was only 4940MW. Under the Reference scenario, about 6GW is less than its installed capacity goal by 2020 which means in the next five years, the annual growth of global installed capacity is at least 1GW. Under the moderate scenario, the annual growth of global installed capacity in the next five years should be over 3GW. So, who will accomplish the increased installed capacity? We will give a simple instruction to the global planning installed capacity. Then, we can see where major growth markets of future CSP installed capacity are.
China plans to accomplish 10 GW installed capacity by 2020.
The National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Drawing up 13th Five-Year Plan on Solar Energy Development” and announced that by the end of 2020, total installed capacity of CSP would accomplish 10 GW. Currently, installed capacity of under construction projects in China is huge. When policy is public, installed capacity is expected to increase rapidly.
South Africa plans to accomplish 3.3GW installed capacity by 2030.
IRP of 2010 version of South Africa points that CSP installed capacity would be 1200MW by 2030. Whereas, in the revised version of IRP, CSP installed capacity has been increased to 3300MW by 2030 and will be over 8100MW by 2050.However, the revised version of IRP at present are still not public. Through REIPPPP, South Africa has accomplished a total CSP installed capacity 600MW, including under development projects or completed projects.
Morocco plans to accomplish 42% installed capacity of renewable energy and has a target to develop 2 GW of solar power by 2020. However, specific proportion of CSP installed capacity has not been clear. What is certain is that by 2018 Morocco would accomplish a total CSP installed capacity at least 510 MW, due to its completed NOOR1 station and NOOR2 & 3 under construction.
Saudi Arabia will accomplish installed capacity 25GW in 2040.
In 2012, Saudi Arabia announced they will accomplish solar thermal power installed capacity 41GW by 2032, including CSP installed capacity 25GW and PV installed capacity 16GW. In 2015, Saudi Arabia delayed this plan before the year of 2040 which is postponed 8 years than the original plan.
According to national solar program goal of Nehru in India, India would achieve CSP online installed capacity 20GW by 2022. In the first stage (2010 ~ 2013), target is 1GW, PV and CSP individually 500MW. In the second stage (2013 ~ 2017), A total solar thermal power installed capacity 10GW would be achieved with a capacity ratio of 7:3 of PV and solar thermal power. While, installed capacity of renewable energy of latest news in India is 175GW by 2022, 100 GW for solar energy, 60 GW for wind power, 10 GW for small hydropower, remaining 5 GW for biomass energy. But it does not give any instructions for the installed capacity proportion of solar-thermal power. The actual proceedings of overall CSP projects in India are slower than we expect.
Chile plans to realize the target of 20% of clean electricity supply by 2025, but it does not give solar-thermal power capacity explicitly. Giants like Abengoa, SolarReserve all prefer Chile market. The installed capacity in Chile is also huge.
Israel plans to achieve 10% of renewable energy power supply by 2020 and realize 50% in 2050 with no clear planning objectives of solar-thermal power. Ashalim1 tower plant with 121 MW is under construction at present.
Algeria plans to achieve installed capacity 2GW by 2030.
In February 2015, Algeria announced to accomplish 5 GW for wind power, 2 GW for solar-thermal power, 13.5 GW for PV capacity, a total installed capacity of renewable energy 22GW by 2030.
In February 2008, Egypt planned to realize 20% of renewable energy power target by 2020, 12% from wind, 2.2% from PV and CSP. The running project in Egypt is KuraymatISCC with 20MWe capacity. Currently, the second CSP plant, KomOmbo, parabolic trough with 100MW capacity is being developed and TaqaMarseAlam and MarseAlam with 30MW capacity are also being developed at the same pace.
Although United States is the second largest country of the global CSP installed capacity, for now it still lacks of further development. The policy prospect, such as DOE loan guarantee policy, ITC is unclear. The future development is remained to be seen.
Spain is the largest country of the global CSP installed capacity. But the deterioration of renewable energy policy limits the development with dim prospects. At present, it is still uncertain.
Moreover, Australia, Kuwait, Italy, Turkey, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, in future installed capacity will be developed. But according to the current situation, proceedings will be slow.